An era of unprecedented change (yeah, yeah, yeah)
Author: Alex Novarese
28 Sep 2009 | 10:50 | 10 comments
A senior partner asked me last week if I thought there was a revolution about to upset the world of law. It would make better copy if I'd have said yes, but my answer was no. Obviously, legal services will keeping evolving and the UK will continue to be the most liberal and dynamic market in world. There will be commoditisation, and it will be surprising if some form of Tesco law does not emerge over the next 10 years (although it probably won't be Tesco doing it). Internationalisation of legal services will continue, though we are now entering a period of polishing up and reorganising foreign practices, rather than the scattergun expansion of the 1990s.
The impact of outside investment under the Legal Services Act is unknowable with so many variables at play. I will say this: for high-end legal services, the more I hear financiers talk it up, the less convinced I am. Technology will keep changing the profession, but probably not in the way everyone is expecting it, because that's what tends to happen with technology. But none of these forces are remotely new. Law has gone through wrenching change over the last 50 years and will do again.
What I certainly don't subscribe to is the weedy assumption that underpins so much punditry in professional services: that we are in a time of unprecedented change and the pace of that change can only increase. It sounds good, but history says otherwise. Industries can sail on serenely for decades with little real development before suddenly being hit by disruptive and violent shifts in technology and/or the buying habits of customers. Some industries are going through such violent upheaval right now - but law isn't one of them.
Of course, a deep recession makes this kind of hyperbole more prevalent. You don't have to be a market bull to believe that Goldman Sachs was onto something when it recently dubbed the current crisis 'The Facebook Recession'. After all, an economic shock roughly equivalent to the early 1980s recession has been routinely referred to 'unprecedented'. In the internet age, everyone feels the need to shout to gain attention, whether what they are saying is credible or not.
There is another reason I find myself unconvinced that we are set for radical upheaval in law (at least more radical than seen over the last 15 years). That is that the people making the case aren't making it very well. That leads to the conclusion that either that the revolution isn't coming, or if it is, it's sneaking up on us unawares. But then no one ever made a buck admitting they can't predict the future.
COMMENTS (TOTAL 10 COMMENTS)
Heh
Anyone remember MDPs? I heh again.
blozitforme -29 Sep 2009 | 17:39
Business Unit Head
I find it interesting that the tone of the article is of conveying relief. Whereas what it should rightly do is warn that by not changing much, we are even further disconnected from the world, which sure as daisy, WILL change beyond recognition, and at an ever increasing pace.
The alternative to rapid change now is not stability, but irrelevance.
Suhasini Sakhare -30 Sep 2009 | 13:19
Heh x 3
"disconnected"
"change beyond recognition"
"ever increasing pace"
"rapid change now"
"irrelevance"
Someone's got the BizzSpeak Manual of Lolsome Catchphrases open on their desk.
professor mcblozzart -30 Sep 2009 | 14:00
There's no relief. Actually, journalists are inherently biased towards seeking out change, because it makes better copy and attracts more readers. That's why the media routinely predicts radical change in many arenas that never turns up. Revolution is a great story, so it would suit me down to the ground if one was brewing. And, correct me if I'm wrong, Suhasini, but you work for an LPO, so don't you have a stake in the revolution happening?
Alex Novarese -30 Sep 2009 | 14:54
Business Unit Head
Hi Alex - very candid response. Really appreciate that.
The revolution will help LPOs, no doubt. That said, its not industry-wide change that brought about the LPO story, but thought leaders and consumer insistence. There is so much play left in the LPO story that LPOs will continue to flourish for years even if present trends continue.
It's the lawyer in me that rues the dying revolution. I can see the shift that lies ahead, in terms of consumer preferences, and we are on the wrong side of it right now. Whether we are forced to change, or we get left behind, some fallout will be there.
Suhasini Sakhare -01 Oct 2009 | 07:44
Ostrich Attitudes
I am shocked by this article.
You may live in a City bubble but High Street solicitors have suffered a catastrophic drop in income since the 1970s.
The competition promised by the Legal Services Act 2007 will push many over the edge.
It will also affect your City chums. Some will become very rich if they manage to float their firms on the stock exchange, but then they will have new bosses, shareholders.
The regulation of the profession is rooted in 19th century assumptions and practises which will not survive the changes to come.
Get your head out of the sand.
Anon. -01 Oct 2009 | 23:14
Legal Week doesn't cover high street law. We've never pretended to cover high street law. That is not to look down on the sector, it's just not what we do and we don't feel that we would add anything useful pretending to cover it. From what I can tell, Tesco law could be a good thing for the high street but I wouldn't pretend to speak with particular authority on the subject.
Alex Novarese -02 Oct 2009 | 09:47
As should be perfectly obvious to anyone who follows the legal sector with even passing interest, MDPs will happen soon, sure as day follows night.
Mutton Jeff -05 Oct 2009 | 09:59
recession
In fairness, I don't think hyperbole about this recession is limited to journalists. I've heard plenty of economists and politicians refer to this recession - rightly or wrongly - as the deepest since the Depression; that might not make it unprecedented, but an 80-year cultural memory hardly sounds like the effect of the internet age.
Dirt -13 Nov 2009 | 14:32
Exactly! Change is perhaps not so unprecedented
You may find these examples interesting. Seems like we have always lived in times of unprecedented changes - and everybody before us too!
http://myths-methods-madness.blogspot.com/2009/12/myth-of-unprecedented-change-1.html
Terry Boulanger -22 Dec 2009 | 12:43
RELATED JOBS
FURTHER READING
MOST READ
MOST COMMENTED
Advertisement
COURSES
LATEST JOBS
Advertisement
RECRUITERS
LEGAL EVENTS
LEGAL BRIEFINGS
- FSA Listing Rules - a few tweaks around the edges
- New Dodd Frank rules for foreign private advisers
- Aviation update - EU Emissions; employment changes; next generation civil aviation
- The way the cookies crumble: time for EC Directive compliance is running out
- Pensions clarity guide - Investment Management Agreements
SERVICES SECTION
NATIONAL ACCIDENT HELPLINE
National Accident Helpline have helped thousands of people claim 100% injury compensation for a wide range of accidents and injuries. Guaranteed. Click here for more info
NO WIN NO FEE SOLICITORS
Claims4Free offers free legal advice in pursuing a wide range of accidents and personal injury compensation claims. Fast, professional, local solicitors.
In-house Lawyers Group on LinkedIn
Legal Week's LinkedIn group for in-house lawyers, which now has over 3,000 members, acts as a networking tool for senior in-house counsel to discuss key issues affecting their roles.
Legal Week's Twitter feed, which now has over 13,000 followers, features a selection of the latest news, opinion, Career Clinic dilemmas and links to interesting articles from the world of law.
Irwin Mitchell Solicitors
Award winners at the Financial Times Innovative Lawyers awards 2011. Irwin Mitchell Solicitors are one of the most respected UK law firms, and offer services in various areas, including personal injury.
