Where will the Investment Bankers go?

I’m starting to wonder if Investment Banker has lost his job. That’s not some archetype, by the way, it’s legalweek.com’s popular lawyer-turned-banker-turned guerrilla poster/blogger, who has infuriated and entertained readers in equal measure (contrary to some readers’ beliefs, we haven’t made him up).

Extrapolating Investment Banker’s position, I got to wondering what life will be like for that group of lawyers that quit the law for banking during the boom years. Now that banking faces tougher times, will most stick it out, go back to the profession or do something else entirely?

The latest labour statistics suggest there will be a number wrestling with such choices. Figures from the Office of National Statistics this week show unemployment rising by 164,000 to 1.79m in the three months to the end of August. That takes the unemployment rate in the UK to 5.7%. However, breakdowns for London show the capital has been worst hit, with unemployment rising from 6.6% to 7.5% over the quarter, with the total jobless rising by 39,000 to more than 300,000.

Some estimates have it that 20,000 jobs have already gone in the City and that more than 50,000 jobs will ultimately be lost in the Square Mile as the financial services industry contracts after the crunch.

Such a scenario poses questions for law firms. Many of the battles in the much-debated 'war for talent' were the raiding parties on law firms from banks and other financial institutions. Even if expectations that banks were gagging to recruit trained lawyers for commercial roles probably became exaggerated, the expectation created a pressure on law firms to retain key staff in some practice areas and fuelled resentment between partners and assistants.

Now this demand has obviously collapsed, will law firms seek to take back their prodigal children when the attraction of the relative job security of law looks more obvious? With law firms’ income under mounting pressure, will they even have the ability?

If nothing else, it seems that law firms are about to benefit from one of those moments when they are seen as particularly attractive employers – ironically, at the point when they are much less bothered. It could be a chance to further upgrade the already high standard of people in the profession, but I doubt many managing partners' thinking will be that long-term. It seems more likely that the greater beneficiaries will be the law schools and business schools, which apparently do a roaring trade in downturns as displaced white-collar workers use the lack of job opportunities to re-skill.

Still, I hope Investment Banker hasn’t lost his job as, beneath the banter and bombast, he is an insightful commentator about the realities of life in the City. Either way, perhaps he could write me that next blog he’d been promising for ages.

See Trainees: know your place! and Banks better at sharing the pie than greedy law firms for some examples of Investment Banker's philosophy. 

• Career Clinic: Will a redundancy pay-off mark my card?
• Career Clinic: From lawyer to banker
• Career Clinic: My supervising partner stinks!
• Career Clinic: Should I stick by my job acceptance?