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What the magic circle will look like - part two

Author: Alex Novarese

27 Feb 2009 | 00:00 | 5 comments

A reader pointed out that I was a bit vague on this week’s leader about how the magic circle will look in the future. So, attempting to rise to that challenge, I said I would come back with more specifics. So here are my less-vague projections on where the partnerships of the big four will be in 2011.

A&O will come in around the 425-partner mark. With Linklaters it largely depends in if they make the obvious cuts to their international network. If they don’t, you are looking at the 460 region. If they do, it'll be more like 400. I know some rivals think they WhiteShoeCrosswill split from those offices, but I don’t have a feel for which way the wind is blowing. Freshfields won’t be much different to now – around 440. Clifford Chance will come in under 550, maybe as low as 525.

Linklaters, A&O and CC will all get their partnerships under 200 in London. Market conditions for the next five years will support maybe 180 partners in London on the kind of margins these firms are looking to achieve. Freshfields, with only 160 partners in London, has an obvious advantage here. In purely financial terms, the finance/debt capital markets partner-ranks of CC, A&O and Linklaters would probably have to shrink to around 60 each in London, which would collectively require the trio to shed around 70 partners in the UK. However, they are unlikely to be that short-term about the practice area and client base. I’d guess each will contract by 10-15 partners by that time. A&O has the biggest issue here in terms of London finance partnership, both in terms of size and how the teams are organised. Leverage at the big four could go under 4:1, with the exception of CC, which would struggle to get under 5:1. Slaughters will get close to 3:1.

These are purely my estimates, based on contacts, market knowledge, trends and current facts, but my colours are nailed to the mast. What this does not mean is that the magic circle is going down the white shoe path, if that can still be said to exist. That’s a different model and one they’re not interested in (rightly, I would say). What you will get is a convergence between the internationally-minded US law firms and the big four; US and UK law firms routinely make digs at each other others’ models, but the truth is that they’ve been liberally borrowing ideas from each others’ camp for years.

And while I’m updating my own comment, I should give a nod to my colleague Richard Lloyd for the phrase "Skaddenisation of the magic circle”, which I lifted for the original piece. He’s a class act.

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COMMENTS (TOTAL 5 COMMENTS)

What on earth is a "white shoe path"?

Jim -02 Mar 2009 | 00:00

It’s referring to white shoe law firms, the closest New York has come to producing a tag like the magic circle. It’s a very rough comparison as white shoe is as much about historical and cultural influences as it is the economic model. As such, it’s arguably out of date and many firms resent the tag due to its WASPish image despite the prestige factor. In business terms, it denotes a conservative model and view of partnership, a domestic focus and a rejection of the corporatisation of law. That’s why Cravath and Davis Polk can be termed white shoe but Skadden cannot. Confusingly, neither can Wachtell for cultural reasons, though its actual business model is a distillation of the white shoe concept. That reference just means that, while the big four in the magic circle firms are stripping down their partnerships, they are refining their model, not junking it in some attempt to ape a small band of Wall Street law firms.

Alex -02 Mar 2009 | 00:00

In responding to the earlier part of this editorial, I used "white shoe" to refer to a small group of highly profitable US firms which, as I understand it, have historically kept costs under control in part by keeping the associate/partner leverage reasonably low, notwithstanding paying market-topping salaries. This seems to me to be a sound approach provided such firms are able to hire associates both able and willing to do their bit (which I have always assumed means hiring at the top end in terms of both ability and drive).

Alex, your idea of white shoe seems different, being based on the values of old-fashioned waspishness from the posher end of US society.

Now our terms are defined, do you agree with the original contention that white shoe (non-wasp version) is something the Magic Circle may well now gravitate towards?

playftseforme -04 Mar 2009 | 00:00

No, I wouldn't agree but that's fine - debate is part of the point of the website. I believe in 20 years if you look at S&C and Freshfields, you won't see a radical difference in their models. It wouldn't surprise me, however, if Cravath circa 2029 looks pretty similiar to Cravath 2009. The white shoe model can probably work for a very select band of firms in New York but I seriously doubt it would be a viable long-term strategy for London-based practices.

Alex -05 Mar 2009 | 00:00

What 'obvious cuts' should Linklaters make to their international network? Profitability in the European offices has risen over the last year because of the relative weakness of the pound vs. euro. One of the reasons for Freshfields having less problems than the more London-centric firms is that it does more work in the euro-zone.

eurolawyer -05 Mar 2009 | 00:00

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