Editor's comment: A smaller round

The inevitable happens to partner promotions

Here's a safe bet as the annual partnership season creaks into gear: this year will offer even more conclusive proof than usual that the economy is a major determiner of partnership decisions at corporate law firms. And firms will once again publicly pretend it isn't.

This denial will come despite what will be a clear pattern among the new promotions. The numbers of new partners made will generally be down on 2008, transactional promotions will be far less common than normal and internationally-focused firms will be particularly slow to make up partners in London (some promotions will be linked to working abroad). For related reasons, there will be more restructuring and litigation promotions. Consider the partner promotions unveiled already, with Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer, Addleshaw Goddard, Halliwells and Ince & Co between them covering much of the widely-differing constituencies that make up the UK top 50. Aside from the insurance-driven Ince, all promotions are down, sharply so in the case of Freshfields, which this year made up 14 partners against 25 in 2008. The fall in Freshfields' promotions was striking in London where only two partners received the nod - against 10 the previous year.

And while Addleshaws and Halliwells didn't make up many less than last year, the practice mix at the two firms is hardly subtle - not a corporate nor property partner between them (and these are both firms historically built on a corporate/real estate axis). Addleshaws will also be a rare illustration of a trend that will be far less visible, but just as widespread - no partners were made up to equity. Not many will go quite that far, but equity promotions will be in short supply. And since there is more coverage of the gender composition of City partnerships, it is likely that the proportion of female partner promotions will be slightly up on recent years, though I wouldn't hold my breath for the same kind of progress in ethnic minority promotions.

The only mystery is why law firms feel the need to profess that the only driver of promotions is talent. Common sense dictates that the level of demand will impact on supply, no matter how fantastic the supply is. So the same forces that will lead to the departure of more than 50 London-based partners at top 10 City firms by May will hold down the number of entries at the other end. A well-managed firm will, of course, be careful to balance the long-term objective of partner appointments with short-term market forces pushing in another direction. But, ultimately, it comes down to managing expectations and reminding the talented but disappointed that their odds will probably be a lot better in 2010. However it pans it, we'll be tracking the outcome online once again in our Partnership 2009 thread.

Click here to comment on this article.

More comment and analysis