Career Clinic: What will happen when the pay freeze thaws?

Heavens to betsy, which planet are you on? WE ARE IN A RECESSION. It is wide. It is deep. Things will not pick up until 2011. Count yourself lucky you have a job.

Anonymous -26 Feb 2009 | 00:10

No. Next question.

Realist -26 Feb 2009 | 06:39

With the utmost of respect, I think you are either incredibly naive, hopelessly optimistic or downright delusional! If the markets should pick up in the 2nd or 3rd quarter... ummmm... rather big "if" methinks!! We're sitting on the 20th of February, Q3 is a little over 4 months away...while I'd love to think everything will once again be rosy in only 4 and a bit months, I sort of doubt it. That said, assuming for the moment the meltdown were to end and the deals came back onto the boil, would a NQ jump 2 pay bands? Errr... why? While there might very well be demand for more cheap labour, I'd suspect the emphasis will (at least for the short term) be on precisely that - CHEAP! With the substantial cuts fresh in everyone's minds, even if we were to see a Q3 increase in work levels, I doubt too many people will be holding out for substantial increases...and as we all know, there's already a rather abundent supply of unemployed lawyers...we're not in Kansas anymore...

Dorothy Gale -26 Feb 2009 | 10:09

There is almost no chance of the market picking up for the second or third quarter - the recession could potentially last for a few years, certainly it could easily be 2011 before we see much upturn. Potentially therefore it's not an issue of whether there will be catchup on frozen pay, but whether pay will be frozen for more than one year and whether that will be enough to avoid layoffs. My guess is there will be layoffs too.At FBD (and I expect anywhere else doing this) there will be no catch-up payments, no jumping of bands, your hypothetical(?) NQ will get their next payrise whenever it comes calculated by reference to their then pay (ie the frozen pay).Put another way, this reflects a structural downward shift in pay such that from now on we're all getting less than we would have been getting before. Still, better reduced pay than no pay which is where this will end for many.

FBD Associate -26 Feb 2009 | 10:28

Heavens to betsy indeed - I'll have whatever happy/ignorant pill you're taking please. In the meantime I am off to lala land.

Cityhopper -26 Feb 2009 | 11:50

So the same breathless posters who were decrying the concept of a pay freeze all of three weeks ago are now criticising someone for asking when it might end and what will happen.

Anonymous -26 Feb 2009 | 15:58

To the nameless poster above - I think you'll find that at least some did not decry the salary freezes... perhaps some better and more diligent diligence next time you decide to cast aspersions...

Dorothy Gale -26 Feb 2009 | 16:09

My current expectation is that the thaw will begin in 2011 and spring will return in 2012. I do not anticipate that there will be vast hikes to follow until work flows increase and there is a demand for associates.

Meg -26 Feb 2009 | 16:14

Yes. Definitely.

Sarcasm Is The Lowest Form Of Wit LLP -26 Feb 2009 | 16:24

Please would everybody stop trying to guess when the recession will thaw! As we are continually being told, this downturn/recession/mess (call it what you will) is unprecedented so how can anyone know when things are likely to get better. It could be next week, it could be 5 years. It could be never!

1 year PQE -26 Feb 2009 | 16:26

The effect of the freeze will be to re-set market rates of pay. Pay stays at that level until the market picks up. It might mean some lawyers do not get a pay rise for a number of years. For some this will doubtless be an unwelcome introduction to the real world.

Anonymous -26 Feb 2009 | 16:27

Dorothy, you are as nameless as I, unless that really is your name and not a literary moniker you use to post on websites. And at the point of my posting there were four other posts on this thread - so why assume I was addressing you specifically?

Anonymous -26 Feb 2009 | 16:30

The poster does not deserve an answer. Some of us are happy to propose pay cuts, hoping that would stave off redundancies.

May -26 Feb 2009 | 17:11

Who gives a flying fig about when pay freezes are likely to thaw!! Oh my gawd! Be grateful you even have a job. So many of my friends who thought law was a safe profession have been kicked out. Gratitude - a concept lost by a lot City lawyers without common sense!

Anonymous -26 Feb 2009 | 17:12

I call you "nameless" only because there is no name appearing before the date - unless of course your name (whether real or otherwise) is "26 Feb 2009". As to my assuming you were addressing me specifically, I'd love to think the world does in fact revolve around me, and everything really is about me, but I've come to learn that (sadly) this just isn't the case. Query why you appear to assume that I have assumed you were specifically addressing me? Your comment was, at least in my mind, rather ill informed and at least insofar as myself, incorrect. I cannot speak for the other posters, but can only speak for myself and what I know to be wrong. Your comment seemed like little more than an attempt to incite further debate - which I suppose (at least on some level) you have accomplished (insert appropriate round of congratulations with accompanying hand-clapping here). With this becoming all too similar to the sort of exchange I would expect to see on another, very differnt legal website, I'll cease (at least I think I will). As to Dorothy Gale being my real name, thankfully not - would have been just a bit too "off to see the Wizard" for my parents!

Dorothy Gale -26 Feb 2009 | 17:18

Salaries are completely market-driven. Law firms only up them to attract applicants and prevent staff leaving for more cash. I feel the reality of the situation will be that by freezing the salaries the end result is that firms have amended the pay bands - so I guess the way to look at it is not that you've remained frozen in yr.2 payband rather that yr.3 payband is now what yr.2 was last year. In other words the paybands have all moved down a notch. Will this change - I guess only when law firms are struggling to hire/retain staff, which is something we won't see for a while!

Associate -27 Feb 2009 | 03:25

Everyone seems to be getting a tad emotional here so I thought I'd contribute with some logic. How about this to stir things up...I'd rather no pay freezes and more job losses. That way the chaff goes and the wheat remains incentivised. If I find am part of the said chaff, so be it. I genuinely think this proposal would be better for morale in the long run as (regrettably) the unlucky leavers will be forgotten very quickly and those that remain will feel valued. I'm sure people will find my Darwinian suggestion controversial, but just give it a moment's thought...

The Wizard of Oz -27 Feb 2009 | 11:43

With cuts as deep and widespread as we've seen, and are unfortunately likely to continue to see, I think it's reasonable to assume it's not just "chaff" that's being cut or targetted. With the economic climate being what it is, I think we're more in "baby out with the bath water" territory...

Dorothy Gale -27 Feb 2009 | 12:57

Oh my gawd Dorothy, lighten up. No wonder some people think lawyers are nitpicking pedants with nothing better to do than try to create arguments about nothing.

red robbo -27 Feb 2009 | 16:12

That's me told then.

Dorothy Gale -27 Feb 2009 | 17:14

It's certainly not just the 'chaff' that is being made redundant - unfortunately in many cases highly competent staff are being made redundant due to their area of specialisation while 'chaff' in areas not as badly affected manage to hold onto their position.

Gavin -28 Feb 2009 | 02:40

You get even, if you have any sense - move on to a better remunerated job - think like a mercenary - its all about money/optimising your position.

Anonymous -02 Mar 2009 | 16:20

i just cannot believe that someone would actually raise this as an issue with friends and acquaintances getting made redudant in the office or department next door. How selfish can you get?!!

Anonymous -05 Mar 2009 | 16:52