Law Firms

SJ Berwin

Editor's Comment: What goes up…

Author: Paul Hodkinson

Published: 08/11/2007 05:08

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The proverb that begins ‘don’t count your chickens…’ will no doubt inform the attitude of managing partners to this week’s bullish set of half-year results.

It is telling that in the same week that a succession of UK firms report budget-busting figures, the world’s largest law firm has initiated a redundancy programme. The future is hardly certain.

This time last year, strong H1 results heralded a record year for the top 50 law firms, which went on to outperform their US counterparts during the financial year with all five magic circle firms breaking through the £1m profits per equity partner barrier.

Taken at face value, this week’s figures appear even more impressive than last year’s. Herbert Smith, Ashurst, Norton Rose, CMS Cameron McKenna and SJ Berwin are among an array of firms reporting more than a 20% increase in turnover on the same period last year. What is more, second halves are traditionally stronger for law firms, all things being equal. Not only is the August hiatus behind them, but there is that annual pre-April billing frenzy to look forward to.

Predictably, managing partners are busily dampening down expectations of another record year. The credit crunch might not have stopped many deals in their tracks, but it has certainly had a cooling effect on the number of new deals and the pipeline for many top firms is looking far from healthy. In this context, Clifford Chance’s announcement that it has laid off a group of relatively senior securitisation associates in New York is hardly surprising, despite the fact that it is anticipating at least a 10% increase in turnover for H1.

Neither will strong half-year figures deter Herbert Smith and Simmons & Simmons from seeking to improve partner performance, with plans to raise the bar further at both firms having come to light recently. If anybody is being bullish, it is the mid-tier firms, which argue they have been cushioned from the impact of the faltering debt markets which have disproportionately affected the larger deals. There is some truth to this assertion but, during the last slowdown, mid-tier outfits were hurt by increased competition from larger City rivals hungry for a flow of mandates.

While robust first-half performances collectively put the UK’s leading firms in a strong position to weather the expected downturn in work, the reality is that harder times are around the corner. To quote another proverb, “what goes up…”

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